Managed Money continues to hold large short positions across the grain complex. The short in the corn market is the largest since November 2013. The short positions in the soybean and wheat markets are approaching early Summer 2015 levels.
December Corn, Daily The December corn contract is nearing long-term technical resistance today. The green line represents the long-term down-trend dating back to the July highs. January Soybeans, Daily The January bean contract tested and successfully held trend-line support late last week. Barring a close below the lower blue line, the chart read is friendly.
The natural gas market has fallen sharply in recent weeks and now sits at the lowest levels since 2012. Warm temperatures throughout much of the US have hurt demand. Some farm inputs are tied to natural gas prices.
Joe Vaclavik was a guest on this weekend’s edition of US Farm Report…
The grain trade has been focused on the economic situation in China. China is one of the world’s largest commodity buyers. Perceived economic weakness has caused some worry in regard to the future of Chinese demand of US grain and oilseeds. Many traders have kept an eye on the Chinese stock market. Shanghai Composite Index
Despite the recent collapse in grain prices, large speculators maintain significant length in the corn and soybean markets. This leads some to believe that the markets are at risk of additional liquidation and downward pressure.
The grain markets are marginally lower to begin Friday morning. New crop corn and soybean contracts remain under pressure given improved weather conditions and stability in crop ratings. Macro-economic factors remain a negative. A widely held expectation that the Fed will raise borrowing costs is seen as being dollar-positive and commodity-negative. Outside commodity products like […]
In general, the grain markets are very quick to price-in a potential crop issue when adverse weather arises. The corn market generally tops during mid-July following a typical crop scare. The last major crop failure in this country was in 2012, a year in which the rally lasted through the first week in August prior […]
The 1993 growing season featured excessive rainfall throughout much of the country. It’s interesting to note some of the similarities between the 1993 December corn chart and the December 2015 chart. Past performance is not indicative of future results!
The Midwest and portions of the US Plains have seen excessive rainfall during the past few weeks. More rain is on the way according to this morning’s forecast: 7-Day Precip Forecast